The likelihood of locating chili in each state, computed from the records in this archive and ranked. Select a state for the method.
21 states with a record · ranked
30 states at the base rate · 30%
No regional style, calendar cook-off or championship placing on record. Select one to see the method.
Probability of chili in Texas
99%
High.
National base rate+30
Texas Red and Chili Gravy territory+30
9 cook-offs on the calendar+20
70 championship placings by residents+19
Texas Red: Beef and dried chiles. No beans.
Chili Gravy: A chili roux for enchiladas.
On the calendar: 59th CASI Terlingua International Chili Championship, 2026-11-03
Method: a 30% base rate, since chili con carne is served nationally, plus weights for native style territory (+30), cook-offs on this archive’s calendar (+7 each, up to 20) and championship placings by residents, Terlingua and ICS (+2 each, up to 19). Figures update as the records do.